source:other news
release time:2022-11-26
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1. If we continue to focus on the development of ternary lithium batteries, our power lithium-ion batteries will always catch up, which will not only prevent us from overtaking on curves, but also lose the safety of new energy vehicles. At present, the core technologies of modified lithium manganate and lithium ternary are in the hands of Japanese and Korean companies. In particular, ternary lithium has reached a very mature and stable stage in terms of technology, process and equipment. If the development direction of China's new energy vehicle power lithium battery is to develop ternary lithium battery, it will not only catch up with Japanese and Korean companies for a long time, but also will fall into the bottleneck of development due to the lack of key technologies, processes and equipment. Technology is severely restricted by Japanese and Korean companies, and its scale is far less than that of Japanese and Korean giants. Samsung SDI once reduced the price of 18650-2.2ah batteries to $1 per battery this year, almost forcing domestic peers into despair. In the case that the performance and price of domestic ternary power lithium batteries cannot compare with those of Japanese and Korean giants, if we stick to the ternary line on new energy vehicle power lithium batteries, I'm afraid we are still catching up, and we have been strangled by international giants, let alone overtaking at the corner. The end result will be the same as the development of traditional cars. High end cars and core technologies still come from international giants. Even if we give up the market, we cannot return to the core technology. Lithium iron phosphate battery is different. Japanese and Korean companies are basically not involved, and important international competitors come from the United States. Although one of the two basic patents is in the United States (A123 and Valence are important representatives of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States), there is little difference between the technical levels of China and the United States. China is the country with the largest investment and the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate in the global field. In fact, with the acquisition of A123 by Wanxiang Group, Chinese companies have mastered the world's most high-end lithium iron phosphate battery technology and process. Compared with ternary lithium battery, the absolute advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in terms of safety and cycle life is the key factor and development demand of new energy vehicles in China. As long as we clarify its development status and increase investment to consolidate this advantage, China's new energy vehicles will be likely to overtake at curves.
2。 Due to the use of ternary alloy, the top design lacks foresight, and the global nickel cobalt resources are tight. Its massive application will lead to a sharp rise in market prices, especially the storage capacity of these two elements in China is simply unable to support. The material formula of ternary lithium battery, whether nickel cobalt lithium manganate or nickel cobalt lithium aluminate, is inseparable from cobalt and nickel. These two metals are rare in China and their reserves in the world are limited. More than 90% of cobalt in China must be imported, and nickel is mainly used in stainless steel production. Both precious metals have international futures trading, and the prices are not only high but also volatile. If China decides to take ternary lithium batteries as an important path for the development of power lithium batteries, according to the government's plan, the output of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million by 2020, and the number of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million. Based on the average charging capacity of 80 kwh lithium batteries for each new energy vehicle, the batteries required for 5 million new energy vehicles will reach 400 billion wh, excluding replacement and backup batteries. Once this demand is put on the market, it will soon drive the cobalt nickel futures price to rise significantly, thus driving the spot market price to rise significantly, and the future price trend of ternary lithium battery will rise significantly. One of the important reasons why the promotion of new energy vehicles in China did not meet the policy expectations is the high price. Among them, the most important reason is the high price of power lithium-ion battery, which accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of new energy vehicles. Due to the ternary route, new energy vehicles are more expensive and need more government subsidies, so the market promotion will never be realized. On the contrary, lithium iron phosphate batteries do not contain any precious metals. Iron oxide and lithium carbonate are important raw materials for the production of cathode materials, which are very rich in China. If the downstream new energy vehicle market demand expands, driven by the scale effect, the upstream material cost will drop significantly. The decline in the price of cathode materials, which accounts for more than 30% of the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries, will drive the rapid decline in the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
3。 In terms of vehicle safety design, China's new energy vehicles use ternary lithium batteries as power lithium batteries, which has a large potential safety hazard. In Tesla's three fires, one was caused by a metal sheet cutting battery. However, due to the perfect safety design of Tesla, these three fires did not cause casualties. The deoxidation temperature of the ternary material is 200 ℃, and the exothermic energy exceeds 800 jg. The ternary lithium battery failed to pass the puncture test, indicating that the ternary battery is prone to safety accidents under the condition of internal short circuit. At present, the safety design of new energy vehicles in China cannot reach the level of Tesla in a short time. As a new energy vehicle power lithium battery, ternary lithium battery has a huge potential safety hazard. It is related to the safety of passengers. Even if the probability of such potential safety hazard is 1 in 100000, it is unacceptable. The stability of lithium iron phosphate battery under high temperature can reach more than 390 ℃, ensuring the high safety of the battery. It will not explode or burn due to overcharge, high temperature, short circuit and impact. It can easily pass the acupuncture test. This safety feature is most suitable for China's new energy vehicle industry, which is still in its infancy
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